Evening Gold Commentary-Jul 12th, 2013

Evening Gold Commentary-Jul 12^th, 2013

 

1: Market Review

Evening Market Review
	Last Close	Open	Close	High	Low	Change	Change%
Gold	1283.8	1284.9	1266.4	1287.4	1266.4	-17.4	-1.36%
Silver	19.95	20.12	19.86	20.19	19.62	-0.09	-0.45%
Crude oil	104.6	104.58	106.25	106.33	104.36	1.65	1.58%
US dollar index	82.748	82.748	82.97	83.26	82.722	0.222	0.27%
5yr Treasury	1.39%	1.36%	1.43%	1.43%	1.34%	0.04%	2.88%
30yr Treasury	3.62%	3.60%	3.64%	3.65%	3.63%	0.02%	0.55%
3-month LIBOR	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	-	-
S&P 500	1675.02	1675.26	1680.19	1680.19	1672.33	5.17	0.31%
DJIA	15460.92	15460.69	15410.27	15498.39	15410.27	-50.65	-0.33%
NASDAQ	3578.30	3579.58	3600.08	3600.08	3576.57	21.78	0.61%
FTSE	6543.41	6543.41	6544.94	6583.90	6540.24	1.53	0.02%
DAX	8158.8	8192.909	8212.77	8244.129	8178.199	53.97	0.66%
CAC40	3868.98	3879.19	3855.09	3886.08	3844.88	-13.89	-0.36%

 

2: Fundamental

 

1 A burst of investor optimism, fueled by fresh reassurances from the Fed, sparked a rally in stocks and pushed U.S. indexes into record territory.--WSJ

2 The head of the CFTC struck a last-minute deal to prevent controversial U.S. swaps rules from immediately going into effect overseas.--WSJ

3 A bipartisan group of U.S. senators in pushing to reinstate Depression-era laws separating plain-vanilla banking from riskier activities.--WSJ

4 Inflation worsened in June at the producer level. The June producer price index jumped 0.8 percent, following a 0.5 percent boost in May. The latest number topped the consensus projection for a 0.5 percent increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, firmed to 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent the month before. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent gain.--Bloomberg

5 Consumer confidence unexpectedly cooled in July as Americans became less optimistic about the outlook for the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 83.9 in July from 84.1 the month prior, today’s report showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a gain to 84.7. The gauge reached an almost six-year high of 84.5 in May.-- Alexandria Baca(Bloomberg)

 

 

3: Technical Analysis

 

Today, the COMEX August Gold Future contract fluctuated the whole day and gained a moderate increase, ending at $1283.80, or increased by 1.09%. The MA5 and MA10 are forming a “Golden Cross”, which is an important signal of reversing; although the other MAs are still in a bearish position Candlestick has a small green body, with extremely short upper shadow and short lower shadow. The volume is only half of yesterday’s volume.

First support level: $1180                   Strong support level: $1160

First resistance level: $1280               Strong resistance level: $1400

MACD: The DIFF and MACD are both negative and moving upward, which is a good news for long position holders. However, the DIFF and DEA are both negative, which means it’s still a bearish market by now.

Bollinger bands: Upper, middle and lower BB are moving downside, which means the market is still weak.

4: Opinions and Expectations

 

1 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser, who has opposed the Fed’s current round of asset purchases, said the central bank should begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly bond buying in September and end the unorthodox stimulus by year-end.-- Aki Ito(Bloomberg)

2 Economists project inflation is as low as it’s going to get this year. The outlook will help give the Federal Reserve room to reduce its monthly asset purchases in 2013. Consumer prices will rise 1.2 percent in the third quarter and 1.4 percent in the fourth, based on the personal consumption expenditures index, according to a Bloomberg survey of 38 economists conducted July 5 to July 10. That signals a reduced risk that disinflation could weaken the economy.-- Michelle Jamrisko & Catarina Saraiva(Bloomberg)

3 The stock fell alongside the price of gold, which was down 26.3 percent as of June 28 and off 23.5 percent as of July 11. Gold was not the Worst Commodity of 2013's first half -- that would be silver, which has dropped 34 percent year-to-date. The Best Commodity this year is oil, up 14 percent through July 11.-- Ben Steverman(Bloomberg)

4 Nordgold NV, the producer controlled by Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov, said a recovery in prices for the metal to $1,500 an ounce is possible by 2014.-- Yuliya Fedorinova(Bloomberg)

 

5 Gold traders are the most bullish in five weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. still needs stimulus. Nineteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, nine were bearish and three neutral.-- Nicholas Larkin(Bloomberg)

 

5: Tomorrow’s Focus

 

Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce will release retail sales data.

 

6: Important Charts

 

COMEX GOLD August

 

Key Economic Data