Evening
Gold Commentary-Jul 2rd,
2013
1: Market Review
| Evening Market Review | |||||||
| Last Close | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change% | |
| Gold | 1252.6 | 1252.7 | 1241.7 | 1267 | 1238.8 | -10.9 | -0.87% |
| Silver | 19.6 | 19.59 | 19.32 | 19.79 | 19.22 | -0.28 | -1.43% |
| Crude oil | 98.06 | 99.63 | 99.64 | 99.87 | 97.78 | 1.58 | 1.61% |
| US dollar index | 83.012 | 83.011 | 83.535 | 83.62 | 82.97 | 0.523 | 0.63% |
| 5yr Treasury | 1.39% | 1.38% | 1.37% | 1.40% | 1.36% | -0.02% | -1.44% |
| 30yr Treasury | 3.48% | 3.46% | 3.46% | 3.48% | 3.45% | -0.02% | -0.57% |
| 3-month LIBOR | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | - | - |
| S&P 500 | 1614.96 | 1614.29 | 1614.08 | 1624.26 | 1606.77 | -0.88 | -0.05% |
| DJIA | 14974.96 | 14973.04 | 14932.41 | 15049.22 | 14870.51 | -42.55 | -0.28% |
| NASDAQ | 3434.49 | 3430.69 | 3433.40 | 3453.29 | 3415.23 | -1.09 | -0.03% |
| FTSE | 6307.80 | 6307.80 | 6303.94 | 6314.13 | 6266.5 | -3.86 | -0.06% |
| DAX | 7983.92 | 7988.92 | 7910.77 | 7988.96 | 7973.97 | -73.15 | -0.92% |
| CAC40 | 3767.48 | 3776.409 | 3742.57 | 3776.409 | 3731.03 | -24.91 | -0.66% |
2: Fundamental
1 Putin Rebukes Leaker Snowden.
“He must stop his work aimed at harming our American partners, strange as that
may sound coming from my lips.” Said Russian President Putin.--WSJ
2 Activity at America’s
factories accelerated slightly in June, the ISM said, easing fears of a deeper
U.S. slowdown. But weakness among manufactures elsewhere points to the sector’s
vulnerability around the globe.--WSJ
3 A rare peek in to the
actions of China’s leadership in a month when a Chinese cash crunch spooked
global investors shows it faltering in communicating its intentions to
markets.--WSJ
4 Gold declined for the
first time in three sessions as improving U.S. economic data strengthened the
case for the Federal
Reserve to slow the pace of stimulus and as a rising dollar cut the
appeal of alternative investments.-- Debarati Roy(Bloomberg)
5 Asian stocks
rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for a fifth day of gains, after
U.S. manufacturing expanded faster than expected.-- Jonathan Burgos(Bloomberg)
6 UBS AG (UBSN),
Switzerland’s biggest bank, started storing gold for wealth-management clients
at a facility in Singapore, citing interest from investors in the region even
after the metal slumped into a bear market.-- Chanyaporn
Chanjaroen(Bloomberg)
7 South African mining companies and trade unions risk destroying the country’s biggest export industry and threatening its credit rating should wage talks fail, according to the Chamber of Mines.-- Kevin Crowley(Bloomberg)
8 Indian policy makers are urging citizens to resist buying gold and boosting scrutiny of speculative currency trades after import curbs and dollar sales failed to stem the world’s biggest currency loss.-- Jeanette Rodrigues(Bloomberg)
9 Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM).’s decision to write down the value of its mines by as much as A$6 billion ($5.5 billion) will lead to the biggest one-time charge in gold mining history. It also heralds pain for competitors.-- David Stringer & Liezel Hill(Bloomberg)
10 China’s regulators — and a fair number of economists, policy makers and investors — worry that legitimate banks are using lightly regulated wealth management products to repackage old loans and prop up risky companies and projects that might not otherwise be able to borrow money.-- New York Times
3: Technical Analysis
Today, the COMEX August Gold Future contract experienced a
sharp increase to $1267.00 at 3AM before continuously descended in to the
daytime, ending at $1241.70, or decreased by 0.87%. The MAs kept a bearish
formation because of the dive in recent days. Candlestick has a small red body,
with long upper shadow and almost without lower shadow. The volume was about
80% of yesterday’s volume.
First support level:
$1180
Strong support level: $1160
First resistance level:
$1280
Strong resistance level: $1400
MACD: DIFF, DEA and MACD are all negative and moving
downward, which is a bearish signal. The DEA which goes in the opposite
direction of the candlesticks shows a reversed of trend may be near. The red
bars are shrinking and implying a reversing potential.
KDJ: The value of D is still hovering around 20, above which
is a bullish sign.
4: Opinions and Expectations
1 Gold has further to
drop in the rout that erased $66 billion from the value of investor holdings
and took prices below the level some mines need to break even.-- Nicholas
Larkin & Debarati Roy(Bloomberg)
2 The commodity
supercycle has ended and investors should reduce their holdings in raw
materials, especially gold, and buy equities, UBS AG said.-- Maria Kolesnikova(Bloomberg)
3 BullionVault,
an online service for investors to buy and sell physical gold and silver, said
its Gold Investor Index was unchanged in June from May’s eight-month low, as
prices slumped 11 percent.-- Nicholas Larkin(Bloomberg)
4 Has gold found its
floor? Yes, BullionVault vice president Miguel Perez-Santalla said this morning
on MoneyBeat. The $1,200/ounce level appears to be a bottom (albeit, a dip to
$1,100 is at least possible, he said).-- Paul Vigna(WSJ)
5 No one can make any
logical sense of what has taken place because the currency wars that are fully
underway everywhere in the world justify gold prices that are not only higher
than they were two years ago (above $1,900), but they justify prices in our
view that would clearly be above $2,000 and maybe even above $3,000.-- William
Kaye (King World News)
6 Jim Rogers says that the gold correction in April was necessary for gold to avoid an even worse crash. Despite the April selloff, Rogers is still purchasing gold, silver, platinum and palladium.-- Jim Rogers (JimRogersInvestments.com)
5: Tomorrow’s Focus
International Trade Balance.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Bureau of the Census; U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Trade Balance Level $-40.3 B $-40.8 B $-45.0 B to $-35.9 B
6: Important Charts
COMEX GOLD August
Key Economic Data
| Crucial Economic Data | |||||
| May | April | March | S1, 2013 | 2012 | |
| GDP | - | - | - | 1.80% | 2.20% |
| CPI | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% | - | 1.70% |
| Fed Reserve Target | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| ECB key rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1%-0.75% |
| Unemployment rate | 7.60% | 7.50% | 7.60% | - | - |
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