Evening
Gold Commentary-Jul 3rd,
2013
1: Market Review
| Evening Market Review | |||||||
| Last Close | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change% | |
| Gold | 1241.7 | 1241.9 | 1251.6 | 1259.3 | 1236 | 9.9 | 0.80% |
| Silver | 19.31 | 19.34 | 19.68 | 19.88 | 19.31 | 0.37 | 1.92% |
| Crude oil | 99.64 | 99.61 | 101.08 | 102.18 | 99.59 | 1.44 | 1.45% |
| US dollar index | 83.535 | 83.536 | 83.213 | 83.73 | 83.076 | -0.322 | -0.39% |
| 5yr Treasury | 1.37% | 1.38% | 1.41% | 1.41% | 1.35% | 0.04% | 2.92% |
| 30yr Treasury | 3.46% | 3.47% | 3.49% | 3.49% | 3.46% | 0.03% | 0.87% |
| 3-month LIBOR | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | - | - |
| S&P 500 | 1614.08 | 1611.48 | 1615.41 | 1618.97 | 1604.57 | 1.33 | 0.08% |
| DJIA | 14932.41 | 14923.73 | 14988.55 | 15025.90 | 14858.93 | 56.14 | 0.38% |
| NASDAQ | 3433.40 | 3420.27 | 3443.67 | 3455.42 | 3417.88 | 10.27 | 0.30% |
| FTSE | 6303.94 | 6303.94 | 6229.87 | 6303.94 | 6185.21 | -74.07 | -1.17% |
| DAX | 7910.77 | 7841.18 | 7829.32 | 7841.87 | 7730.37 | -81.45 | -1.03% |
| CAC40 | 3742.57 | 3708.91 | 3702.01 | 3708.91 | 3668.77 | -40.56 | -1.08% |
2: Fundamental
1 Fed officials outlined a plan
for reining in the nation’s biggest banks, aiming to reduce risks to the
broader economy posed by “too big to fail” institutions, and unanimously
approved a new capital framework for all banks.--WSJ
2 Auto sales in the U.S. rose
at the strongest rate in more than five years in June, putting the industry on
track for its best year since 2007.--WSJ
3 U.S. oil futures registered a
14-month high, nearing $100 a barrel as prices for domestic crude reconnect
with the world market.--WSJ
4 Japan’s premier generally
gets high marks for his economic kick-start, but some economists have doubts
about sustained improvement.--WSJ
5 CAIRO—The leader of Egypt's
military ousted President Mohammed Morsi from office and replaced him with the
head of the country's constitutional court—a move the presidential palace
quickly branded a "complete milit-ary coup."—Matt Bradley and Reem
Abdellatif(WSJ)
6 Edward Snowden’s request for
asylum was spurned by nations from Switzerland
to India as the U.S. pressed internationally for the return of the fugitive
leaker of classified documents.-- Nicole Gaouette(Bloomberg)
7 The weekly jobless claims released: 343,000, decreased by 5,000.— Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor
8 The biggest union at the world’s three largest platinum mines refused to sign an agreement that seeks to bring stability to the mining industry in South Africa, which has been plagued by strikes and violence.
3: Technical Analysis
Today, the COMEX August Gold Future contract fluctuated the
whole day and gained a moderate increase, ending at $1251.60, or increased by
0.80%. The MAs kept a bearish formation because of the dive in recent days. However,
what deserves investors’ attention is that the MA5 and MA10 have a tread to
form a “Golden Cross”, which implies a reverse. Candlestick has a small green
body, with short upper and lower. The volume was about 80% of yesterday’s
volume because the holiday is coming.
First support level:
$1180
Strong support level: $1160
First resistance level:
$1280
Strong resistance level: $1400
MACD: The red bars are shrinking and implying a reversing
potential.
Bollinger bands: Upper, middle and lower BB are moving downside,
which means the market is still weak.
4: Opinions and Expectations
1 Has gold found its
floor? Yes, BullionVault vice president Miguel Perez-Santalla said this morning
on MoneyBeat. The $1,200/ounce level appears to be a bottom (albeit, a dip to
$1,100 is at least possible, he said). But investors looking to get back into
gold shouldn’t expect a roaring rebound.-- Paul Vigna(WSJ)
2 Amara Mining
Plc (AMA) said it expects Samsung
C&T Corp. (000830) to provide the “majority” of the funding it needs
to build a gold mine in Sierra Leone.-- Thomas Biesheuvel(Bloomberg)
3 We expect further
selling of gold into rallies despite interest in gold hitting multi-year lows.
We mentioned before that we would expect the $1,250 level to provide support —
even if only psychological.—Standard Bank
5 We expect that rallies
towards $1,300 and possi-bly $1,340 should continue to attract selling.—Standard
Bank
5: Tomorrow’s Focus
All U.S. markets are closed because of Independence Day.
6: Important Charts
COMEX GOLD August
Key Economic Data
| Crucial Economic Data | |||||
| May | April | March | S1, 2013 | 2012 | |
| GDP | - | - | - | 1.80% | 2.20% |
| CPI | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% | - | 1.70% |
| Fed Reserve Target | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| ECB key rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1%-0.75% |
| Unemployment rate | 7.60% | 7.50% | 7.60% | - | - |
No comments:
Post a Comment