Evening
Gold Commentary-Jul 1th,
2013
1: Market Review
| Evening Market Review | |||||||
| Last Close | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change% | |
| Gold | 1234.8 | 1232.9 | 1252.6 | 1261.7 | 1224.1 | 17.8 | 1.44% |
| Silver | 19.54 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 20.07 | 19.36 | 0.06 | 0.31% |
| Crude oil | 96.49 | 96.58 | 98.06 | 98.28 | 96.07 | 1.57 | 1.63% |
| US dollar index | 83.22 | 83.206 | 82.998 | 83.24 | 82.966 | -0.222 | -0.27% |
| 5yr Treasury | 1.38% | 1.42% | 1.39% | 1.43% | 1.37% | 0.00% | 0.36% |
| 30yr Treasury | 3.49% | 3.52% | 3.48% | 3.53% | 3.47% | -0.01% | -0.29% |
| 3-month LIBOR | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | - | - |
| S&P 500 | 1606.28 | 1609.78 | 1614.96 | 1626.61 | 1609.78 | 8.68 | 0.54% |
| DJIA | 14909.60 | 14911.60 | 14974.96 | 15083.28 | 14911.60 | 65.36 | 0.44% |
| NASDAQ | 3403.25 | 3430.48 | 3434.49 | 3454.43 | 3430.31 | 31.24 | 0.92% |
| FTSE | 6243.40 | 6215.47 | 6307.80 | 6317.02 | 6215.439 | 64.40 | 1.03% |
| DAX | 7959.22 | 8000.02 | 7983.92 | 8023.15 | 7890.279 | 24.70 | 0.31% |
| CAC40 | 3738.909 | 3763.17 | 3767.48 | 3786.41 | 3724.53 | 28.57 | 0.76% |
2: Fundamental
1 U.S. stocks climbed, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
posted its first monthly loss since October, as reports showed manufacturing
grew faster than forecast in June and construction spending increased.-- Sofia
Horta e Costa & Lu Wang(Bloomberg)
2 Fugitive U.S. intelligence leaker Edward Snowden has
applied for political asylum in Russia,
a consular official at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport said.-- Henry Meyer &
Stepan Kravchenko(Bloomberg)
3 Egypt’s army gave President Mohamed Mursi 48 hours to restore stability to a country
crippled by a wave of violence, raising the specter of military intervention if
the unrest continues.-- Tarek El-Tablawy & Mariam Fam(Bloomberg)
4 New York’s finance regulator
is setting his sights on the world’s reinsurance firms, alleging some may be
involved in practices that won’t comply with new U.S. laws against doing
business with Iran.--WSJ
5 A BOJ survey showed that the
mood among businesses has improved sharply, the latest in a series of
indicators suggesting that Japan’s economy is picking up.—WSJ
6 European politicians demanded
explanations from the U.S. of allegations that the National Security Agency
spied on EU institutions.—WSJ
3: Technical Analysis
Today, the August Gold Future contract trading at COMEX rocketed
at 10:00AM and declined a little after that. By Eastern Time 5:15PM, it closed
at $1252.60, or increased by 1.44%. Because of the previous continuous diving,
the MAs are still being a bearish arrangement. The candlestick has a small
green body with moderate upper and lower shadow. The volume today is only 60%
of yesterday.
First support level:
$1180
Strong support level: $1160
First resistance level: $1280
Strong resistance level: $1400
MACD: DIFF and MACD are both negative and moving downward,
which is a bearish signal. The DEA goes an opposite direction with the
candlesticks and shows a reversing signal.
KDJ: The value of D is about to go above 20, which is a good
sign for bullish market.
4: Opinions and Expectations
1 Plenty of fingers have been
burned as the price of gold fell to near
three-year lows this year, from small investors who bought into the
gold bug story to big gold miners who loaded up on
debt as the metal’s price shot upward. And here’s one more victim of
the price collapse: pawn shops.-- Tom Gara(WSJ)
2 Gold has looked so bad
recently that some technicians believe it can’t get much worse, which makes it
a good time to try buying. With technicians now seeing strong support at
Friday’s lows, at around $1,180 an ounce for futures and at $114.68 for GLD,
Worth said the reward-versus-risk profile of buying gold is “asymmetrically” in
favor of bulls, suggesting it is now “worth playing from the long side.”-- Tomi
Kilgore(WSJ)
4 China is the world’s largest
gold producer and the second-largest consumer after India, but industry
executives and professionals have been complaining that gold prices in China
are just shadows of global prices and don’t have any impact on other markets.--
Yue Li(WSJ)
5 U.S.-listed exchange-traded
funds saw their largest monthly cash outflow on record in June, as global stock
and bond markets quaked over worries about central bank stimulus and China’s
slowing growth.-- Chris Dieterich(WSJ)
6 Hedge funds cut wagers on
a gold rally to a five-year low as a record quarterly drop drove prices below
$1,200 an ounce for the first time since 2010 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
forecast more declines.-- Debarati Roy(Bloomberg)
7 Gold prices advanced the most
in nine weeks as demand for coins, bars and jewelry rebounded following the
record quarterly plunge. Platinum posted the biggest gain in a year.-- Debarati
Roy & Nicholas Larkin(Bloomberg)
5: Tomorrow’s Focus
The Federal Reserve holds a meeting on proposed capital rules for banks.
6: Important Charts
COMEX GOLD August
Key Economic Data
| Crucial Economic Data | |||||
| May | April | March | S1, 2013 | 2012 | |
| GDP | - | - | - | 1.80% | 2.20% |
| CPI | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% | - | 1.70% |
| Fed Reserve Target | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| ECB key rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1%-0.75% |
| Unemployment rate | 7.60% | 7.50% | 7.60% | - | - |
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