Evening
Gold Commentary-Jul 10th,
2013
1: Market Review
| Evening Market Review | |||||||
| Last Close | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change% | |
| Gold | 1249.1 | 1249.1 | 1261.6 | 1265.6 | 1242.2 | 12.5 | 1.00% |
| Silver | 19.22 | 19.23 | 19.43 | 19.54 | 18.98 | 0.21 | 1.09% |
| Crude oil | 104.52 | 104.57 | 106.17 | 106.66 | 104.21 | 1.65 | 1.58% |
| US dollar index | 84.62 | 84.61 | 83.495 | 84.74 | 83.393 | -1.125 | -1.33% |
| 5yr Treasury | 1.48% | 1.48% | 1.51% | 1.53% | 1.47% | 0.03% | 2.03% |
| 30yr Treasury | 3.65% | 3.63% | 3.68% | 3.79% | 3.63% | 0.03% | 0.82% |
| 3-month LIBOR | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | - | - |
| S&P 500 | 1652.32 | 1651.56 | 1652.62 | 1657.92 | 1647.66 | 0.30 | 0.02% |
| DJIA | 15300.34 | 15298.03 | 15291.66 | 15348.95 | 15258.89 | -8.68 | -0.06% |
| NASDAQ | 3504.26 | 3502.11 | 3520.76 | 3522.99 | 3502.00 | 16.50 | 0.47% |
| FTSE | 6513.08 | 6513.08 | 6504.96 | 6535.91 | 6472.41 | -8.12 | -0.12% |
| DAX | 8057.75 | 8056.51 | 8048.76 | 8081.21 | 7990.649 | -8.99 | -0.11% |
| CAC40 | 3843.56 | 3840.24 | 3840.53 | 3855.19 | 3812.03 | -3.03 | -0.08% |
2: Fundamental
1 The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast, reducing its projections for emerging markets. The move underscores the ripple effects as investors brace for the withdrawal of central-bank stimulus.--WSJ
2 China posted a surprise drop
in exports for June amid slack global demand, revealing further weakness in a
key driver of growth for its economy.--WSJ
3 U.S. regulators
unveiled plans to require Wall Street’s largest firms to set aside far more
capital as protection against future disaster.--WSJ
4 AIG and GE Capital
were named “systemically important” by regulators, bringing the nonbank
financial firms under greater oversight.--WSJ
5 Stocks
rallied for a fourth day in a row, pushing the Nasdaq to a 12-year high and
giving the Dow its longest winning streak since April.--WSJ
6 West Texas Intermediate crude surged to a 15-month high after U.S. inventories tumbled for a second week, signaling that a glut in the central part of the country is dissipating.-- Mark Shenk(Bloomberg)
3: Technical Analysis
Today, the COMEX August Gold Future contract fluctuated the whole day and gained a slight increase, ending at $1249.10, or increased by 1.00%. There was a sharp increase after the Fed minutes released, but retreated to yesterday’s closing price very soon. After the “Golden Cross” formed by MA5 and MA10 two days ago, now they are forming a “Dead Cross” to show a bearish signal. The other MAs are still in a bearish position. Candlestick has an thin green body, with extremely short upper shadow and short lower shadow. The volume is 15%more than yesterday’s volume.
First support level:
$1180
Strong support level: $1160
First resistance level:
$1280
Strong resistance level: $1400
MACD: The DIFF and DEA are both negative, which means it’s
still a bearish market by now.
Bollinger bands: The candlesticks are moving between middle BB
and lower BB, showing the market is still weak. However, the spaces between
upper, middle and lower BB is shrinking, which tells investors the bottom is
forming.
4: Opinions and Expectations
1 Many Federal Reserve officials want to see more signs employment is picking up before they’ll begin slowing the pace of $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, according to minutes of policy makers’ last meeting.-- Joshua Zumbrun & Craig Torres(Bloomberg)
2 Gold futures jumped to
a one-week high as minutes from the Federal
Reserve’s last meeting showed many officials want to see more signs
of employment picking up before they begin slowing the pace of bond purchases.--
Debarati Roy(Bloomberg)
3 Gold-Oil Ratio
Declines to Lowest Since 2008: Crude oil is trading at the highest price
relative to gold in more than four years as a rebounding U.S. economy is
increasing fuel demand while cutting the appeal of haven assets.-- Debarati Roy(Bloomberg)
4 The value of assets in gold-backed funds in India, the world’s biggest consumer, fell for a third month in June as a bear market in bullion deepened.-- Swansy Afonso(Bloomberg)
5: Tomorrow’s Focus
Jobless Claims.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
New Claims - Level 343 K 337 K 325 K to 360 K
6: Important Charts
COMEX GOLD August
Key Economic Data
| Crucial Economic Data | ||||||
| June | May | April | March | S1, 2013 | 2012 | |
| GDP | - | - | - | 1.80% | 2.20% | |
| CPI | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% | - | 1.70% | |
| Fed Reserve Target | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |
| ECB key rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1%-0.75% | |
| Unemployment rate | 7.60% | 7.60% | 7.50% | 7.60% | - | - |
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