Evening
Gold Commentary-Jul 8th,
2013
1: Market Review
Evening
Market Review
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| Last Close | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change% | |
| Gold | 1222.4 | 1221.1 | 1235.7 | 1237.4 | 1214.4 | 13.3 | 1.09% |
| Silver | 18.85 | 18.85 | 19.03 | 19.26 | 18.67 | 0.18 | 0.95% |
| Crude oil | 103.63 | 103.95 | 103.05 | 104.12 | 102.13 | -0.58 | -0.56% |
| US dollar index | 84.433 | 84.493 | 84.224 | 84.6 | 84.147 | -0.209 | -0.25% |
| 5yr Treasury | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.50% | 1.59% | 1.50% | -0.09% | -5.66% |
| 30yr Treasury | 3.67% | 3.68% | 3.64% | 3.68% | 3.63% | -0.03% | -0.82% |
| 3-month LIBOR | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.27% | - | - |
| S&P 500 | 1631.89 | 1634.20 | 1640.46 | 1644.68 | 1634.20 | 8.57 | 0.53% |
| DJIA | 15135.84 | 15137.22 | 15224.69 | 15262.72 | 15137.22 | 88.85 | 0.59% |
| NASDAQ | 3479.38 | 3493.81 | 3484.83 | 3495.91 | 3475.39 | 5.45 | 0.16% |
| FTSE | 6375.52 | 6375.52 | 6450.07 | 6476.09 | 6375.52 | 74.55 | 1.17% |
| DAX | 7806 | 7865.92 | 7968.54 | 8015.21 | 7848.14 | 162.54 | 2.08% |
| CAC40 | 3753.85 | 3783.16 | 3823.83 | 3842.51 | 3781.51 | 69.98 | 1.86% |
2: Fundamental
1 Euro-zone officials are
preparing to confront a fresh test in the region’s debt crisis-finding yet more
financing for beleaguered Portugal, Greece and Cyprus--WSJ
2 Lawrence Summers, a former
top economic adviser to President Obama, is said to be more than a little
interested in the job of Fed chairman if it opens up.--WSJ
3 Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said during last month's press conference that the end
of purchases in the middle of next year will probably coincide with a jobless
rate of around 7 percent.-- Andrew Harrer(Bloomberg)
4 Warren Buffett, the
billionaire whose fortune swelled this year with a surge in Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) shares, contributed a record $2 billion to the
foundation created by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
co-founder Bill Gates.-- Kathleen Chaykowski(Bloomberg)
5 Amanda Renteria, a
former Senate aide who had been considered the front-runner to succeed Gary
Gensler as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said she has
withdrawn her name for the post.-- Jamila Trindle(WSJ)
6 India’s Gold, Silver Imports Fall: India’s gold and silver imports in June fell 70% from the previous month following steps taken by the central bank and the federal government to curb demand, a senior government official said Friday.—WSJ
3: Technical Analysis
Today, the COMEX August Gold Future contract fluctuated the
whole day and gained a moderate increase, ending at $1235.70, or increased by
1.09%. The MA5 and MA10 are forming a “Golden Cross”, which is an important
signal of reversing; although the other MAs are still in a bearish position Candlestick
has a small green body, with extremely short upper shadow and short lower
shadow. The volume is only half of yesterday’s volume.
First support level:
$1180
Strong support level: $1160
First resistance level:
$1280
Strong resistance level: $1400
MACD: The DIFF and MACD are both negative and moving upward,
which is a good news for long position holders. However, the DIFF and DEA are
both negative, which means it’s still a bearish market by now.
Bollinger bands: Upper, middle and lower BB are moving downside,
which means the market is still weak.
4: Opinions and Expectations
1 John Paulson, the
billionaire hedge-fund manager seeking to rebound from losses tied to bullion,
posted a 23 percent decline in his PFR Gold Fund last month, according to a
letter to investors.-- Kelly Bit(Bloomberg)
2 Investors in gold
funds, whose value slumped a record $44.7 billion in the second quarter, may do
better in the second half of the year if history is any guide.-- Nicholas
Larkin(Bloomberg)
3 Gold futures trading
volume surged during the first after-hours session on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange, adding to signs of robust demand for the precious metal in
China.—Bloomberg News
4 Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., Japan’s biggest bullion retailer, said sales to local investors may exceed purchases this year for the first time since 2004 as lower prices and the yen’s weakness spur buying interest.-- Jae Hur & Ichiro Suzuki(Bloomberg)
5: Tomorrow’s Focus
China issues inflation data for June.
6: Important Charts
COMEX GOLD August
Key Economic Data
Crucial
Economic Data
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| June | May | April | March | S1, 2013 | 2012 | |
| GDP | - | - | - | 1.80% | 2.20% | |
| CPI | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% | - | 1.70% | |
| Fed Reserve Target | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |
| ECB key rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1%-0.75% | |
| Unemployment rate | 7.60% | 7.60% | 7.50% | 7.60% | - | - |
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