HTDT Gold: Evening Gold Commentary-Jul 25th, 2013

Evening Gold Commentary-Jul 25^th, 2013

1: Market Review

2: Fundamental

1 Durable Goods Orders data released: Durables orders sharply beat expectations at the headline level but it was almost entirely due to aircraft orders at Boeing. Elsewhere, durables orders were mixed, ending net at flat for June. New factory orders for durables in June surged 4.2 percent, following an upward revised 5.2 percent (originally 3.7 percent) for May.—Bloomberg

2 Jobless Claims data released: Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 in the July 20 week to 343,000 with the 4-week average down slightly to 345,250. The trend for the data is flat, pointing to no discernible improvement underway in the jobs market.—Bloomberg

3 Facebook easily beat profit and sales expectations, sending its shares up 17% after hours. The company swung to a profit as revenue rose 53%, boosted by a surge in mobile and local ad sales.—WSJ

4 The race to become the next Federal Reserve chief looks increasingly like a contest between Lawrence Summers and Janet Yellen.—WSJ

5 Americans are buying more new homes despite higher mortgage rates. The pace of new-home sales rose 8.3% in June from a month earlier and was up 38% from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year increase since the recovery began. Builders had 161,000 new homes for sale at the end of June, enough to supply the market for 3.9 months at the current sales pace.--WSJ

6 Goldcorp Inc. (G), the biggest gold producer by market value, wrote down the value of assets by $1.96 billion and is slowing some project spending because of lower metal prices.-- Liezel Hill(Bloomberg)

3: Technical Analysis

Today, the COMEX August Gold Future contract fluctuated gained a moderate increase after 3:00PM EST Time, ending at $1333.50, or increased by 0.97%. The MAs are forming a bullish position because MA 30 broke MA10 downward and MA5, MA10 and MA30 are forming a clear bullish arrangement. Candlestick has a small green body, with super short upper shadow and moderate lower shadow. The volume was slight less than yesterday’s volume.

First support level: $1280 Strong support level: $1180

First resistance level: $1350 Strong resistance level: $1380

MACD: DIFF and MACD are both moving upward, which is a bullish signal. However, investor should be aware that the value of MACD is shrinking, which means we need more signals to be long.

KDJ: K and D are both above 80, which mean the market is too hot and investor should consider to cut their long position.

Bollinger bands: The candlesticks have a trend to break the upper BB. It will be an extreme situation. The main factor is the sharp rally in the previous days.

4: Opinions and Expectations

1 Gold jewelry exports from India, the world’s biggest consumer last year, are poised to surge as the central bank seeks to curtail domestic bullion use and boost shipments to defend a weakening currency, a trade group said.-- Swansy Afonso(Bloomberg)

2 There is NOT That Amount of Silver: There is only a certain percent of the silver market which can go into savings because a lot goes into industrial. But here is the ‘piece de resistance,’ they said (India) imported 720 tons in April (annualize 8,000 tons). In May it went to 900 tons, annualized call it 11,000 (tons). We’re going from 1,900 tons (of silver Indians were purchasing) to 11,000 tons, in a 25,000 ton market. That’s impossible. There’s not that amount of silver available for investment.—Eric Sprott (http://ericsprott.blogspot.com/)

3 Sell Equities And Buy Physical Gold Now While Prices Are Low!: Marc Faber appears on CNBC where he says you should sell equities and buy gold! The price of gold is low and he believes stocks are overvalued.—Marc Faber (http://marcfabersblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/sell-equities-and-buy-physical-gold-now.html)

4 The Dark Side of QE: "Interest rates are rising because of QE. We have reached a tipping point, meaning that QE can no longer keep interest rates from rising. The market is now focusing on the dark-side of QE, which is the inflationary consequences of all this money printing. Rising interest rates with QE ongoing means that we have reached the stage where the Fed has now lost control. This result was inevitable because market forces always beat central planners and its groupies in the end. Only the timing of this event could not be predicted."—James Turk (http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-dark-side-of-qe.html)

5: Tomorrow’s Focus

The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index.

Prior Consensus Consensus Range

Sentiment Index - Level 83.9 84.0 83.2 to 85.5